In 2016, when the UK opted to leave the EU, it sent shockwaves throughout the media and political culture. Proponents of the decision were convinced that it would restore Britain to its former glory and free us from the European yoke. Meanwhile, dissenters averred that the economy would imminently collapse under the weight of foreign trade tariffs, mass emigration and chlorinated chicken. The next couple of years were fraught with both frustration and anticipation as successive governments attempted to “get Brexit done.” Finally, for better or for worse, Brexit occurred in theory on the 31st January 2020. Everybody in the UK then held their breath waiting for the immediate macroeconomic consequences and, more importantly, to see if they were right.
Despite all this rigamarole, Brexit then lost its place at the very top of the nation’s political agenda. The pandemic, then in its infancy, was a newer and far more exciting issue which would ultimately dominate political discourse for the best part of two years. Now, as we leave COVID behind, economists have been assigned the herculean task of identifying the outcomes of Brexit in the wake of a global pandemic and, frankly, waning public interest. That being said, there’re still some who have noted the UK’s underperformance regarding trade in relation to our G7 counterparts.
In fact, when presented with this data, the Chancellor admitted that the poor performance “might well be” a result of the Brexit deal. Notably, Sunak voted for Brexit himself and, as a minister, this admission is not ideal. The question remains, however, to what extent had Brexit affected UK trade? What’s more, how does the impact measure up to that of COVID and the war in Ukraine? Finally, given the comparative importance of the latter two issues, why should we still care about Brexit?
Whilst it’s hard to distinguish between the detrimental effects of COVID and those of Brexit, however, it is worth noting that as of October 2021, Eurozone trade was up 4% on pre-COVID levels whilst the UK’s was stagnating far behind. In a more conclusive assertion, the Office for Budget Responsibility claims that Brexit will have a greater long-term effect on the UK economy than COVID. Supposedly, the UK’s potential GDP will be reduced by 4% in the long-run due to Brexit, whilst COVID will reduce it by a mere 2%. Even the highly publicised, illegal mass layoff of 800 people at P&O Ferries has been linked to Brexit. According to Dr Gerard Schnyder, there’s a significant chance that the fall in trade between the UK and Europe set in motion the decline in profits that ultimately necessitated the decision.
Again, most of the analysis is rooted to some extent in speculation. That being said, it’s still important to take note of these indicators. Despite being outdated and eclipsed by far more exciting developments, it’s in the interest of democratic accountability that we continue to observe the effect of Brexit and come onto our own individual conclusions. It could even be argued that it’s easier to do so now that our departure from the EU is no longer such a contentious subject.
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